Canada’s economy was marred by uncertainty in 2025, but 2026 may be the year Canadians finally see some clarity.

Canada’s slowing population growth , United States tariffs , the “Buy Canadian” government policy, diversified trade and

productivity are emerging as key issues facing the Canadian economy in 2026, according to a report by Deloitte.

“This year is likely to mark an inflection point for Canada’s economy as governments attempt to execute on policies that will create a more attractive environment for investment,” Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte, said in the report. “From improving infrastructure to eliminating barriers to internal trade and reducing regulatory hurdles, Canada is hitting the reset button.”

Deloitte is predicting the country’s economy will only grow 1.5 per cent in 2026, compared to 1.7 per cent last year.

Deloitte also expects the jobs market to remain fairly subdued in the early parts of 2026 due to weaker demand from goods-producing industries, though the unemployment rate should drift downward.

Household spending climbed 2.1 per cent in 2025 as Canadians defied the testy economic conditions, but Deloitte said that may change in 2026 as reduced immigration and mortgage renewals weigh on spending habits.

Deloitte expects the Bank of Canada to maintain interest rates, with inflation largely remaining within the central bank’s target range and little evidence that a spike may be on the horizon.

A pause to the interest rate easing cycle may bring more homebuyers back into the

housing market and help those expecting to refinance their mortgage in 2026.

“Accommodative monetary policy, with the Bank of Canada maintaining the policy rate at 2.25 per cent throughout the year, will help households who need to refinance their mortgages,” Desjardins said.

Add in government incentives to build homes, and 2026 is shaping up for a housing bounce-back, Deloitte said.

After a brutal year for Canada’s exporting businesses, Deloitte said it looks like more uncertainty is on the way, especially since the

Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will be reviewed. “The review of (CUSMA) in July 2026 will be a pivotal event,” Desjardins said. “The ability of Canadian exports to go to the U.S. tariff free if they are compliant with the current agreement has been key in keeping Canada’s economy from faltering. Changes to the agreement that restrict or eliminate this access to the U.S. will have dire consequences. We view this as a risk, but not our base case.”

Canada is already making provisions to protect Canadian businesses, with limits on foreign steel and lumber, while also focusing on fast-tracking major projects across the country.

“It is unreasonable to expect governments to stimulate this structural transition quickly, which means that the economy is likely to remain in a slow growth mode until the latter part of 2026,” Desjardins said.

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Trouble may be brewing for the global electric vehicle market. Growth in EV sales in expected to slow around the world in 2026, as major markets like China, Europe and the U.S. scale back incentives for the vehicles.

BloombergNEF is predicting 24.3 million passenger EV purchases this year, only a 12 per cent increase from last year.

In the U.S., sales have reached an “EV winter” this year, before an expected revival in 2027 and 2028.

  • Chief economists from Canada’s Big Six banks give their outlooks for 2026 at the Economic Club of Canada
  • Earnings: Constellation Brands Inc., Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
  • Today’s Data: U.S. ADP National Employment Report for December, U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for December
  • RBC CEO says he’s ‘more excited’ about Canada’s growth outlook than he has been in a decade
  • Not their parents’ financial plan: Gen Z Canadians skip saving for a down payment and splurge on travel
  • Chaos in Venezuela highlights need to diversify market for Canadian oil
  • Five big changes to employment and hiring rules you need to know in 2026

Read more here.  Now is the time to take action on those financial resolutions for 2026 and there are plenty of ways to set yourself up for success in January, including creating a charity budget, throwing some money in your RRSP account, helping out a child in the family with an RESP contribution or adding to your FHSA.

Read more here.  Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on  one of the country’s most important sectors.

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McLister on mortgages

Sign up here. Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

Financial Post on YouTube

mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Ben Cousins with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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  • Millions of Canadians struggling as social safety net lags
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