The number of Canadians returning from travelling to the United States increased for the first time since Donald Trump was elected as president, possibly hinting that people’s hostility toward our neighbour could be thawing.

The number of returnees rose 1.4 per cent in April from a year ago, fuelled by a 5.8 per cent increase by car, although return air trips fell 8.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada on Monday. It was the first time cross-border trips increased since December 2024, the agency said.

“Basically, what you’re finding is there’s a bit of an equilibrium happening,” Wayne Smith, director of the Institute for Hospitality and Tourism Research at Toronto Metropolitan University, said. “There’s only so many people who are going to boycott. You’re going to have some drop-off of the boycott over time.”

He said traffic during the long Easter weekend was one reason for the increase in April.

Still, it may still be a long time before the number of Canadians travelling to the U.S. returns to pre-Trump times, given that the number of automobile trips is still down by a third compared with two years ago.

Furthermore, the pullback in Canadian travel to the U.S. might be worse than initially thought, according to a recent University of Toronto study that tracked cellphone data. It estimated Canadian travel to major U.S. cities fell by a year-over-year median of 42 per cent.

The authors said Statistics Canada data hasn’t captured the full magnitude of the pullback since it misses people who cross the border for shorter stays in fewer locations.

The U of T study dovetails with media reports of a drop in visitors to snowbird destinations such as Florida, to border states like New York, New Hampshire and Vermont and to major tourist destinations such as Las Vegas and Disney World.

“However, one of the most underreported findings is the marked decline in visits to large metropolitan economies,” authors Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung and Jeff Allen said in the report.

Tourist and business travel has fallen in tech centres such as San Francisco and Houston, they said. The second-largest decline was recorded in Grand Rapids, Mich., likely a victim of the tariffs since the area is closely tied to Ontario’s automotive industry.

But the U.S. loss is Canada’s gain. Nearly nine in 10 Canadians plan to travel as much or more in 2026, with 92 per cent of them having one trip in Canada on the agenda while 70 per cent are avoiding the U.S., according to a new survey by the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC).

“Domestic demand is no longer a side story,” the report said.

It said that if travelling Canadians replaced one overnight stay abroad with one in their home country, that could boost gross domestic product by $4.6 billion.

Still, people are making compromises to adjust for tighter budgets, including choosing more affordable accommodations, adjusting travel dates, travelling during the off-season and making shorter trips.

“Despite a cautious economic backdrop, the outlook for Canada’s tourism sector remains positive in 2026,” the BDC report said. “Slower growth, elevated uncertainty and higher energy costs are expected to keep travellers focused on value for money.”

Smith said that is a good thing since international travellers to Canada are suffering airline fare sticker shock.

“Airline prices have gotten so expensive that it’s becoming price-prohibitive,” he said. “And we had a lot of Europeans and Asians really interested in Canada last year. The price differential is going to make a big difference to them.”

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Toronto-based Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. is making one of the largest mining investments by a Canadian company in the country’s history by investing $14 billion in its portfolio of Ontario gold mines, according to the province’s Ministry of Energy and Mines.

Agnico, the world’s second-largest gold producer, plans to invest $12 billion by 2030 across its Ontario portfolio, which includes mines and exploration assets, according to a press release, and $2 billion into its Detour Lake underground mine project and its Upper Beaver copper-gold project. — Gabriel Friedman, Financial Post

Read the full story here. Related story: Equinox Gold agrees to buy Orla Mining in $5.1 billion deal

  • 10:00 a.m.: Prime Minister Mark Carney announces a new energy agenda on Parliament Hill
  • Today’s data: Canada existing home sales and wholesale sales excluding petroleum, U.S. import and export price indexes, continuing and initial jobless claims
  • Earnings: AtkinsRealis Group Inc., Keyera Corp., Discovery Silver Corp., Canada Goose Holdings Inc., Brookfield Corp., Intefor Corp., Boralex Inc., H&R REIT, Electrovaya Inc.
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Home prices continue to fall or remain flat in major centres across Canada, a potential predicament for those counting on their homes to help fund their retirement.

Long-time homeowners have seen huge appreciation in their property nest eggs, but the drop in real estate values over the past two years may push some to reconsider their retirement plans. Find out more.

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McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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