Crypto has grown up: Why the Rolex rally is on pause in 2025

The following is a guest post and opinion from Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget.

There was a time not too long ago when the pulse of the crypto market could be measured not only by candlestick charts but by the waitlists at luxury watch boutiques. During the 2020–2022 bull cycle, the correlation between Bitcoin and high-end collectibles — especially steel sports watches from brands like Rolex and Patek Philippe — was so strong, it practically became a meme of its own. When Bitcoin hit $69,000, the Nautilus 5711 traded for over $240,000 on secondary markets. WatchCharts and Bitcoin price curves looked eerily similar, just with a lag.

At that time, crypto wealth creation was rapid, exuberant, and visible. Traders were turning six-figure gains into grails, “Lambo” dreams were fueling Twitter threads, and retail participation was at an all-time high. It was the golden age of the flex economy — where wealth was on-chain and status was worn on the wrist.

But as we stand in mid-2025, Bitcoin has hit another all-time high, and the story is remarkably different.

Despite BTC’s climb, prices for luxury watches and other goods have not followed. Platforms like WatchCharts show that the luxury watch index has remained largely flat since late 2023. Automotive luxury stocks, tracked by indices like CLTBAUTOS, are showing stagnation or minor pullbacks. Even equities more broadly, affected by rate uncertainty and macro headwinds, are not keeping up with Bitcoin’s recent growth rate.

Whether it’s due to increasing geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, or the slow normalization of digital assets in global portfolios, we are witnessing what I call the “great decoupling” — Bitcoin pulling away from luxury assets and speculative equities, and drawing closer to the behavioral patterns of traditional hedges.

1. A Shift in Capital Profile

So, what changed? The players in crypto today are not the same as in 2021. The institutional influx we’re seeing — led by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major jurisdictions like the U.S. and Hong Kong — is reshaping the investor base. These participants are not flipping JPEGs or scalping meme coins; they’re allocating capital from pension funds, family offices, and balance sheets.

We can also see evidence of this in crypto exchanges’ user behavior. Some exchange products, staking tools, and structured strategies are seeing increased capital allocation from these sources.. These are instruments designed not for rapid speculation, but for portfolio optimization. And the questions we get from users have shifted — it’s less about “What’s the next moonshot?” and more about “How do I diversify across CeFi and DeFi with risk-managed exposure?”

2. Market Maturity and the End of the Flex Trade

Bitcoin’s new role is no longer as a get-rich-quick ticket, but as a strategic asset with scarcity and security at its core. And when capital matures, so does its expression. Instead of Rolexes and Richard Milles, today’s crypto gains are increasingly going into multi-sig wallets, validator nodes, or ETF shares.

This is not to say luxury goods have lost their luster — they remain potent cultural and symbolic indicators. But the speculative froth has been wrung out. Watch dealers are no longer chasing crypto whales; they’re recalibrating to a different clientele. The speculative hangover from 2022 is still in the system, and today’s buyers are cautious. In this sense, Bitcoin is moving differently not just in price — but in purpose.

3. Macro Climate and Liquidity Constraints

Another factor behind this decoupling is macroeconomic conditions. Central banks are still navigating rate policy and inflation remains sticky. Liquidity is precious. In this climate, discretionary purchases — including high-end timepieces — take a backseat. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly drawn to assets that serve as long-term stores of value.

Bitcoin has earned its seat at that table. Centralized exchanges must evolve in tandem. Centralized exchanges are no longer only trading platforms; they become launchpads for long-term strategy. That means better compliance, stronger custody infrastructure, and deeper integration with on-chain ecosystems like TON and others. Investments in these ecosystems are focused on driving mass adoption not through hype, but through utility.

4. Gold and Bitcoin: A New Alignment

The narrative of “digital gold” has been around for years, but now we’re seeing it in the data. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index has moved more closely with BTC than ever before. When equities wobble, gold rallies — and lately, Bitcoin has started to behave similarly. This is a signal that crypto’s correlation matrix is changing. Bitcoin is starting to act not like a tech stock, but like a hedge.

It’s no longer just a risk-on bet; it’s increasingly viewed as a resilient allocation. This has significant implications for wealth managers, portfolio constructors, and yes — centralized exchanges.. As this new alignment takes shape, we must be prepared to offer the products and infrastructure that support it: from derivatives with tighter spreads to institutional custody solutions and staking mechanisms with real security.

The Coming Era of Responsible Growth

There’s a saying in markets: “When the narrative changes, the behavior follows.” What we’re seeing today is this narrative transformation toward a new era of responsible growth.. The decoupling of Bitcoin from luxury goods is another signal that crypto capital is growing up — and so must the industry’s trading and investment platforms.

As an industry, we must be committed to continuing to support strategic investments, foster mass adoption through smart integrations, and empower users to see digital assets not just as a short-term, speculative play — but as a long-term, viable asset class.

The “Rolex and Lambo” party may be over, but the future of finance is just beginning!

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