Only one Canadian province will buck the national trend of decelerating growth this year, fuelled by higher resource prices, predicts the Royal Bank of Canada.

Has to be Alberta, right? Nope. Newfoundland and Labrador tops the RBC growth ranking with real gross domestic product forecast to rise to 4 per cent in 2026, from 3.5 per cent the year before, the only province where growth is expected to accelerate.

Higher commodity prices and increased production in both oil and mining sectors led RBC to upgrade its forecast for the province from 1.8 per cent to 4 per cent.

Oil output year to date is up almost 30 per cent in the province after idled offshore vessels were brought back to full operation, said RBC. At the same time oil prices have soared.

Mining is another strength. As gold prices hit record highs, the Valentine Gold mine in central Newfoundland began production and is expected to reach full capacity in the second quarter of this year.

“The confluence of production expansion and high prices is setting the natural resources complex up for a record year,” said the RBC team, led by chief economist Frances Donald.

Newfoundland’s success story, however, comes with a caveat. Because the resource industry is capital intensive, output growth is not translating into a flood of new jobs, said the economists.

“The commodity boom is narrowly concentrated, leaving households largely on the sidelines.”

Since the launch of Donald Trump’s tariff war early last year, the economies of Canada’s provinces have diverged dramatically. The manufacturing hubs in central Canada most exposed to tariffs have taken the biggest hits, while energy and mining provinces have outperformed.

“Tariffs, demographic shifts and commodity cycles are keeping Canada’s provinces on different tracks,” said the economists.

Alberta might not top the ranking, but it comes second with the energy sector as the main driver of growth. The Iran war has kept oil prices high and supplies tight, and with the aid of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion , energy exports to non-U.S. markets are up by $4 billion or 65 per cent year over year, said RBC.

Planned optimizations could increase the pipeline’s capacity by 90,000 barrels a day by next year.

Yet RBC puts Alberta’s GDP growth at 2 per cent this year, down from 2.7 per cent in 2025, as slowing population gains weigh on other areas of the economy such as residential construction.

Central Canada is where the outlook gets bleak. Ontario’s real GDP growth is expected to slump to 0.4 per cent this year from 1.3 per cent in 2025, which would be the slowest year on record outside of a severe recession, said RBC.

U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on manufacturing and investment, especially in the southern regions of the province, and the housing correction is also dragging down growth.

Consumer spending has propped up the economy so far, but “warnings signs are emerging,” said RBC. Delinquency rates on both mortgage and non-mortgage loans in Ontario are now the highest in Canada, “pointing to intensifying household financial stress.”

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SpaceX shares jumped even higher Monday, after their market debut made CEO Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire.

Gains Monday boosted the company’s market value to more than US$2.3 trillion, putting it among the top six largest companies in the world.

That puts Musk’s wealth, at least on paper, at well over US$1 trillion, more than three times that of the world’s second-richest person, Google co-founder Larry Page.

What does a trillion-dollar fortune look like? According to Bloomberg, it’s roughly equivalent to Switzerland’s gross domestic product and if each of Musk’s 14 children inherited equal shares, they would instantly rank among the world’s 30 richest individuals.

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What was once a comfortable retirement income a few years ago now does not go as far, thanks to the rising cost of living.

Many retirees are therefore reconsidering their financial plans, not due to poor decisions but because the economic landscape has changed and retirement can be expensive, writes credit counsellor Mary Castillo. She offers some practical ways to supplement your retirement income without sacrificing the lifestyle you have built. Read more

Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on one of the country’s most important sectors. Sign up here.

Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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