Canada’s beleaguered housing market just can’t catch a break. Over the past few years it has struggled under rising interest rates , trade turmoil and economic uncertainty. Now the Iran war has added another headwind:

soaring oil prices. What does the price of crude have to do with real estate? Stephen Brown, deputy chief economist at Capital Economics, said though the surge in oil due to the conflict in the Middle East should eventually boost Canada’s gross domestic product, in the short term the

threat of inflation is putting upward pressure on borrowing costs. “There is no relief in sight for the troubled housing market, with the spike in global oil prices likely to push up

mortgage rates in the coming weeks,” he said. When the Bank of Canada held its interest rate at 2.25 per cent last week, governor Tiff Macklem said policy makers would “look through” the immediate shock of higher oil prices. Markets at that point were predicting just one 25-basis-point hike this year.

But within days that had shifted dramatically, with traders in overnight interest rate swaps betting that Canada’s central bank would raise rates by 75 basis points in 2026, starting with a quarter-point hike in July, Bloomberg reported.

Donald Trump’s about-face on Iran strikes Monday lowered that bet to 2.5 hikes, but today oil prices are on their way back up.

“The market is ignoring Macklem’s more patient and measured messaging,” said Benjamin Reitzes, rates and macro strategist at Bank of Montreal. “Focus is on the hawkishness of other central banks and fears of further escalation of the conflict in Iran.”

Market bets on rate hikes are pushing up government bond yields which in turn influence mortgage rates. This could cause five-year fixed rates to rise from an average of 3.8 per cent recently toward 4 per cent, said Brown.

An oil shock is one of the last things Canada’s real estate market needs right now, said

MortgageLogic.news strategist Robert McLister. “An oil supply disruption not only sours buyer sentiment further, but it can also drag down asset prices generally and make borrowing more expensive. With leverage already maxed out for most buyers, especially younger ones, higher rates would further squeeze maximum mortgage amounts and what homebuyers can afford to pay,” he wrote in a

column for the Financial Post.  Evidence that Canada’s housing market continues to struggle showed up loud and clear in the latest numbers from the

Canadian Real Estate Association. Home sales slipped another 1.3 per cent nationally in February, with the MLS Home Price Index falling for the 15th month in a row, said Rachel Battaglia, an economist with

Royal Bank of Canada.  Canadian home prices are down 20 per cent from their peak in early 2022.

Though fewer sellers came to market in February, inventories remain at a six-year high which is likely to put more pressure on prices in coming months, said Battaglia.

Declining values are also spreading to more markets. While Toronto and Vancouver continue to suffer the worst price drops, Edmonton became the latest region to slip into the red, following Victoria, Okanagan Valley and Saint John, she said.

The oil shock and threat of higher mortgage rates have prompted Capital Economics to downgrade its forecast for Canadian home prices. It now expects prices to fall 4 per cent this year, matching the decline in 2025.

 Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.

Canadian small business sentiment plunged to its lowest since last fall this month as the Iran war raised concerns about higher costs for fuel and materials.

“Just when we saw a glimmer of hope, fuel prices and supply chains are causing hardships again,” said Andreea Bourgeois, director of economics at the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).

Surprisingly, sentiment was lowest in Saskatchewan and Alberta, though that could change if oil prices remain high, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. The outlook was gloomiest for transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors.

Guatieri said though business sentiment has improved in Canada since the worst days of the trade war, “it is now vulnerable to the real war unfolding in the Middle East.”

  • Manitoba releases its provincial budget
  • Today’s Data: United States non-farm productivity
  • Earnings: Dollarama Inc.
  • Hey Canadians, want to build a pipeline? Your pension might just help you do it
  • Wellness retreats are finding new life in Canada’s rural real estate market
  • How the Fed’s oil shock blind spot affects gold and other investments, and may engineer a recession

    At 68, Ingrid says her current income is just enough to cover expenses with “little left.” She wants to undertake a major renovation of her home and make sure her portfolio is able to generate at least $80,000 after tax for the next 27 years, but worries if she will have enough. Luckily, Family Finance finds Ingrid’s financial situation is a lot sounder than she thinks.

    Find out why. Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on  one of the country’s most important sectors.

    Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).

    McLister on mortgages

    Sign up here. Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

    Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

    Financial Post on YouTube

    mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

    Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

    Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at 

    • Even Americans are getting fed up with Donald Trump’s tariffs
    • Oil supply shock could force the Bank of Canada’s hand yet

    posthaste@postmedia.com . Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here