Glencore share price rebounded this month and is about to form the highly bullish golden cross pattern. The stock jumped to a high of £320 on Tuesday, its highest level since March 6 of this year, and 60% above its lowest level in April. 

Glencore stock is benefiting from copper surge

Glencore is one of the world’s biggest players in the copper industry with operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, Peru, and Canada.

The company benefits when the copper prices are doing well, as they are doing today. Data shows that the copper price has jumped by over 44% from its lowest level in January this year, and is now hovering at an all-time high.

The most recent catalyst for the ongoing copper price surge is the recent statement that the US would consider having a 50% tariff on imports.

However, copper’s fundamentals were strong even before the ongoing trade jitters. These fundamentals explain why BHP, the biggest mining company globally, made a bid for Anglo American last year. 

The primary driver is that copper demand is surging as global demand for electrification increases. A good example of this is in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, that is seeing robust growth, especially from China.

Electrification is also gaining steam, which explains why stocks of top companies like GE Vernov, and Siemens Energy are soaring this year. 

Estimates suggest that the global demand for copper is soaring, currently standing at 27 million and projected to reach 37 million by 2050. At the same time, copper supply is expected to keep going up slightly in the next few years.

Analysts have mixed opinions on what to expect in terms of deficits and surpluses. Some analysts, such as Macquarie, anticipate the copper market will move into a 300,000-ton surplus this year. UBS and Goldman Sachs anticipate a significant trade deficit for the industry. 

Glencore shuts key mine ahead of earnings

The next key catalyst for the Glencore share price is that the company is expected to close at least two mines in Australia this month. Closing these mines will end the company’s operations in Australia.

The company has cited the low yields from the mines, which have been in existence in the last 60 years. Most importantly, the company has blamed the unfair practices of China.

The next key catalyst for the Glencore share price will be its half-year earnings scheduled on August 6. Its most recent production results showed that the company’s copper production dropped by 30% to 146 kilotons. This decline was offset by a 49% surge in cobalt and zinc. Gold and silver production also plunged by 83% and 16%, respectively. 

Glencore made over $230 billion in annual revenue last year, a 6% annual increase, while its EBIT was $6.9 billion. It reported a net loss of over $1.6 billion, a significant decline from a profit of $4.2 billion in the previous year. 

Glencore is expected to announce more shareholder returns in this earnings report as the management said:

“The top up returns will be effected by way of a buyback to be concluded before the release of our H1 2025 results on 6 August, the date on which we plan to announce further shareholder returns.”

Glencore share price technical analysis

GLEN stock price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the GLEN stock price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. It has moved from a low of 201p in April to the current 322p. It has formed a rising wedge pattern, a popular bearish reversal sign. 

On the positive side, there are signs that the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) are about to cross each other, forming a golden cross pattern. 

Glencore stock price has jumped to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level, while the MACD and the RSI have all pointed upwards. Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising as bulls target the 50% retracement point at 347p. The risk, however, is that the rising wedge may lead to a breakdown ahead or after earnings.

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